The price of Bitcoin surged above $4500 on Sunday, signaling that a popular sell signal remains intact. But it seems investors have remained tentative and the price has retreated back down to $4400.
Taking a look at the Bitcoin price over the past few days, we can see that it busted out of the upward trend it has been on since mid-December. The breakout was a likely result of the Bitcoin Cash hard fork, which occurred on Jan. 1. Since then, the Bitcoin price has been on a downward trend.
Bitcoin rose to $43K today, and is back under $45K for the second time in 48 hours. It was the same thing yesterday, unless I don’t remember, and maybe the day before that, and … well, you get my point. At some point, this market will start selling, and then there will be some volatility until it bottoms out. How much volatility, and for how long, I have no clue—but I’m sure some people on the dashtreasury team know.. Read more about bitcoin hedge against recession and let us know what you think.
In August 2021, a Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain indicator that detected dead cat bounces during previous negative market declines flashed once again.
The indicator, dubbed “Bitcoin: Short Term Holder NUPL,” considers the unspent transaction output, or UTXO, of BTC transactions that are less than 155 days old. It tries to assess if an investor is successful within 155 days of buying and holding Bitcoin in this way.
As a result, if the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) returns a value less than zero, investors are losing money on their Bitcoin investments. An NUPL over zero, on the other hand, indicates that investors are profiting.
For the first time since the crypto market collapse in May 2021, the Bitcoin NUPL for short-term investors has returned above zero, indicating that they are profitable. Meanwhile, the blockchain analytics platform warned of a possible sell-off, citing fractals from the bear cycles of 2014-15, 2018, and March 2020.
NUPL chart for Bitcoin short-term holders. Glassnode is the source of this information.
Short-term Bitcoin investors have previously taken advantage of rebound rallies during corrections to earn temporary gains.
Despite a 100 percent recovery, the market movement from the 2014-15 negative session indicates BTC/USD continuing its downward drop. Similarly, a 97.41 percent upward retracement in 2018 did nothing to protect the market from the negative bias.
During the 2014-15 and 2018 negative cycles, bitcoin price recovery were short-lived. TradingView.com is the source for this information.
Bitcoin prices fell from about $65,000 to roughly $29,000 in 2021, prompting the most recent upward rebound. Following a strong recovery, the cryptocurrency surged to $46,787 on the Bitstamp market, a 63.59 percent increase.
Bitcoin fell below its psychological support level of $45,000 on Thursday, correcting downward once again. The cryptocurrency was trading at $44,100 at its intraday low.
The latest performance of the Bitcoin/USD exchange rate. TradingView.com is the source for this information.
The bullish case of the dissenters
Such “fast recoveries” are typical in two situations, according to Glassnode: bear market relief rallies and bull market unbelief periods.
As a result, the blockchain analytics platform could not rule out the potential of a longer bull run, similar to the ones witnessed during the 2013-2019 and 2020 upside booms.
The optimistic view was bolstered by Glassnode’s study, which was released earlier this week. The network saw a drop in short-term holdings in tandem with an increase in long-term holders, to the point where long-term investors now own 82.68 percent of all Bitcoins in circulation, a new all-time record.
Large hodlers amass Bitcoin below $50,000 as BTC transactions above $1 million rise
In ciculation, the currency held by short-term holders fell to 25% of the net Bitcoin supply, indicating an increase in holding behavior.
Holder supply ratio in the long and short term. Glassnode is the source of this information.
When the short-term holding ratio falls below 20% in the past, it has resulted in a supply squeeze, in which coins in circulation fall short of current demand.
“This is very comparable to the volume of coins held by [long term investors] in October 2020, just before the main bullish impulse began,” Glassnode researchers said.
“While the supply squeeze based on the [short-term holding] Supply Ratio has not yet reached 20%, there are many indications and trends in play that indicate it will do so around mid-September (but that the circumstances for a supply squeeze have already been established).”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $44,200.
The author’s thoughts and opinions are entirely his or her own and do not necessarily represent those of Cointelegraph.com. Every investing and trading choice has risk, so do your homework before making a decision.
Bitcoin’s price fell to a 12-month low of $43.86 yesterday (June 6th) before staging a bullish comeback to close the day at $45,819 against the US dollar. While today’s cryptocurrency market has generated some positive trends, bitcoin price remains in a bearish trend. Bitcoin price is currently losing ground, with the market bears continuing to dominate the BTC price chart.. Read more about bitcoin green price and let us know what you think.
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