It appears that we may be going through a six-week crypto spring, at least according to a “groundhog” that tracks the winter weather in the US. The prognosis was made by hedge-fund legend Art Cashin, who is among the most respected “bearish” voices in the system. According to Cashin, a “groundhog” that is supposed to predict spring’s arrival in Canada in late February may instead signal that we are headed for another six-week winter for Bitcoin and other cryptos.
I am a little late with this blog post, but the news from the groundhog out in the world of crypto currency has been lousy. The groundhog has not had a good winter, which will make it hard for it to predict the first signs of spring. We know this because a hedge fund manager in New Jersey is using a groundhog named Wyckoff to predict the path of the crypto currency. The Wyckoff groundhog has been around since the 20th century, and it is a stick that gets flipped over to predict the weather.The technical model of the Weikoff accumulation chart has become the main topic when it comes to predicting future bitcoin (BTC) price movements. Some analysts believe that BTC’s recent drop below $29,000 signals a spring phase that will soon be followed by an upward push.
BTC/USDT price compared to the Wyckoff accumulation model. Source: Twitter
While bulls argue for a continuation of the uptrend into 2021, others warn that the bitcoin price is not out of the woods yet, especially in the short term.
According to Philbfilb, independent market analyst and co-founder of the trading suite Decentrader, bullish traders could be reckless and mistaken about the pace of recovery.
Wyckoff seems to be the flavor of the month right now.
Over the years, I’ve noticed that most people have one thing in common: they assume that accumulation is happening faster than it actually is, and they ignore the magnitude of the decline. pic.twitter.com/bqWeFBVtV3
– f i l ₿ f i l ₿ (@filbfilb) July 2, 2021
The Wyckoff pattern in particular has been redrawn several times in recent weeks, as chartists try to shape the price action to fit their idea of what’s to come, perhaps ignoring other warning signs and avoiding data that doesn’t fit their vision, Filbfilb reports.
I’ve seen it drawn and redrawn countless times over the past few weeks. ….. But if it is indeed a bottom, there is usually some correlation between the size of the downtrend and the time it takes to rebuild.
GBTC threatens to ruin recovery of
One of the main obstacles to what many are calling a higher BTC recovery is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s unlock chart, which shows that a large number of GBTC were still unlocked as of mid-July.
at 12. July Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) receives 2 thousand BTC (~$69M) and on 17. In July, another 16,000 BTC (~$550 million) will be released and investors can sell their bitcoin trust shares purchased in January ($32,000-42,000 per BTC).
– Sir, I’m sorry. Prosperity (@_i2288_) June 30, 2021
As you can see in the chart below, the biggest GBTC release of this year will take place in July and this could put pressure on the price, especially since some previous big release dates coincided with big swings in the BTC price in recent months.
On topic: 3 things traders say about bitcoin and the state of the bull market
Unlock the bitcoin trust chart in grey. Source : bybt.com
As for these potential headwinds, Philbfilb says it’s too early to say what will happen in the near future, as we haven’t been in the trough long enough, suggesting it could take some time for the cycle to stabilize before the start of the fourth quarter.
If this happens, I think it would be similar to the chart I’m sharing, with an end of Q3/early Q4, and we’ll likely see another downward rise after the retesting of the offering….
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